Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 16
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 15:
- Despite Rhamondre Stevenson’s involvement in the Patriots’ backfield, TreVeyon Henderson continues to prove why he should be the RB1 for this offense. In Week 15, he finished with +18.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected, putting together one of the most efficient performances by an RB this year. For context, we have only seen three RBs finish multiple games with +15 Fantasy Points OVER Expected this season: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, and TreVeyon Henderson.
- The Chargers’ backfield remains a situation to monitor. In Week 15, Omarion Hampton led the backfield in fantasy points and usage value, but he still trailed Kimani Vidal in route participation (21%) and snaps (37%). Regardless, as long as he remains involved, Hampton will continue to hold RB2 value. However, until we see the Chargers re-commit to him as their lead RB, Hampton is unlikely to produce consistent RB1 numbers.
- Four RBs received over 30% of their team’s opportunities in Week 15: TreVeyon Henderson, Ashton Jeanty, Quinshon Judkins, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Despite disappointing performances, Jeanty and Judkins remained focal points for their respective offenses. In the case of Croskey-Merritt, he finished with his highest usage value since Week 6 as Chris Rodriguez was unavailable against the Giants. With Rodriguez set to return in Week 16, JCM will remain a low-floor flex option for fantasy managers.
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
- It was unfortunate to see Luther Burden leave the game early due to an ankle injury, as he was on pace for a career game. Even with the injury, Burden still finished with a career-high in Target Share at 25.9% and Targets per Route Run (44%). If Rome Odunze continues to miss time and Burden is healthy enough to play next week, he should remain productive against a Packers defense that just lost Micah Parsons.
- Harold Fannin finished with only 8.5 half-PPR points, but he was by far the most involved receiver for the Browns. His 45.2% target share is the highest by a TE in a single game this season and would rank 14th among all positions this year.
- While it did not translate into as many fantasy points, Tyler Warren led all Colts receivers in target share (23.1%) in their first game with Philip Rivers. Even though it is only a one-game sample size, Warren should remain a key piece in the Colts’ offense despite the injury to Daniel Jones.
Dynasty Stock Report
RJ Harvey – Denver Broncos, RB – Stock Up
After being selected in the second round by the Denver Broncos, RJ Harvey skyrocketed in rookie drafts and was widely considered a top 10 pick in ADP. However, that did not translate into immediate production as he remained behind J.K. Dobbins on the depth chart. In fact, he finished within RB2 range only once in his first seven games. With the injury to Dobbins in Week 10, Harvey was finally given the keys to the backfield, operating as their RB1 in their last four matchups. Since Week 11, he ranks as the:
- RB10 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.5)
- RB13 in Half-PPR Points (13.9)
- RB5 in Rushing Share Inside the 5-yard Line (83%)
- RB23 in Opportunity Share (29%)
To further put his numbers into context, Harvey has been an RB1 in my usage model (expected fantasy points) in each of the last three games. In other words, he has been a focal point of a young, improving offense that ranks 11th in EPA per Play this season. Regarding his long-term value, note that Dobbins was only signed to a one-year deal. Assuming he does not return, Harvey should retain his RB1 role heading into the 2026 season. And even though the Broncos will undoubtedly add another RB or two to their backfield, Harvey’s potential path to RB1 production solidifies his value as a top 25 dynasty asset at his position.
Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia Eagles, RB – Stock Down
After a historic campaign in 2024, Saquon Barkley was valued as a top-five dynasty RB heading into the season. Even at age 28, many assumed he would maintain his top-tier production despite the potential for negative regression. Unfortunately, with the drop-off of the Eagles’ efficiency, Barkley has not been the same player. For context, he has been an RB1 in only 42% of his games this year. That percentage was over 62% last season. In addition, his usage has been trending in the wrong direction, experiencing a 19% decline in Expected Fantasy Points compared to last year. That is a direct result of the Eagles’ struggles, leading to fewer high-value touches for Barkley. In short, while he remains a top-15 RB heading into the off-season, his age and inefficiencies indicate that his days as a dynasty RB1 are likely now behind him.
Adonai Mitchell – New York Jets, WR – Stock Up
After playing behind Michael Pittman and Josh Downs in his rookie year, Adonai Mitchell has quietly broken out after being traded to the Jets. Especially with Garrett Wilson still tending to a knee injury, Mitchell has assumed the WR1 role for New York. For context, since Week 11, Mitchell ranks as the:
- WR15 in Expected Fantasy Points (12.8)
- WR16 in Target Share (27%)
- WR3 in Air Yards Share (51.7%)
- WR1 in End Zone Target Share (63%)
Naturally, the inefficiencies of the Jets’ offense will limit his weekly upside. However, when you account for over 30% of a team’s receiving opportunities, that should translate into fantasy production most weeks. Long-term, Mitchell still has a couple of seasons under his rookie contract. Even with Wilson on the roster (who was subject to trade rumors before the deadline), Mitchell could still have a fantasy-relevant role if the Jets pursue further upgrades to their offense next season, particularly at the QB position. Until then, Mitchell’s dynasty value is trending in the right direction after producing multiple top 20 performances in his last three games.
Jack Bech – Las Vegas Raiders, WR – Stock Down
After being selected within the top 60 picks in the 2025 draft, there was some optimism that Jack Bech could emerge as a viable fantasy option in a wide-open depth chart for Las Vegas. However, Bech has yet to produce a top-24 performance, as the Raiders have struggled heavily on offense. Even after Jakobi Meyers was traded to the Jaguars, his opportunities remained limited, playing behind Tre Tucker and Tyler Lockett in their last six games. For context, since Week 10, Bech has commanded only a 7.8% target share and a 9.9% air yards share, averaging 3.0 fantasy points per game. And with only three games left this year, Bech will likely enter the off-season valued outside of the top 50 dynasty WRs.
Prospect Watch List
Kevin “KC” Concepcion is currently one of the few WR prospects projected in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. And while he has not been as productive as Makai Lemon or Carnell Tate this season, he still stands out as one of the most accomplished receivers in this class. At 5’11” and 190 pounds, Concepcion is a complete WR who offers plenty of versatility and explosiveness. While he has shown that he can be an effective deep threat, he also excels on short and intermediate routes. Especially with the ball in his hands, Concepcion has routinely displayed his elusiveness and ability to break tackles in the open field. That has also translated into success as a returner, offering another dynamic to his game that should appeal to plenty of teams at the next level.
As for his production profile, Concepcion has accounted for over 30% of the Aggies’ receiving offense this year, averaging 2.41 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. While that does represent a career high, his freshman year is what stands out the most. For context, his 2.21 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt with NC State in 2023 ranks within the 96th percentile among freshman WRs drafted over the last decade. If we look at his profile in totality, he will likely trail Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate, and Jordyn Tyson in my rankings. However, Concepcion should be entrenched as a top-five receiver in this class, potentially ranking as high as the 90th percentile in my rookie model.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football WRs this season:
Comments
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