Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 15
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 14:
- Woody Marks was a focal point for the Texans in their pivotal matchup against the Chiefs, accounting for 50% of the team’s opportunities. He also set a career high in Expected Fantasy Points (19.8) and rushing share (83.9%), clearly operating as Houston’s RB1.
- RJ Harvey has quietly emerged as the Broncos’ RB1 with J.K. Dobbins unavailable. Against the Raiders, he finished with career highs across multiple metrics, including Expected Fantasy Points (18.1), Target Share (16.7%), and opportunity share (34.3%). As long as Dobbins remains sidelined, Harvey is a borderline RB1 in one of the most improved offenses in the league.
- Welcome back, Omarion Hampton. In his first game back, Hampton continued to split touches with Kimani Vidal. However, Hampton was still a top 18 RB in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value), as he remains an integral part of the offense. As we head into the fantasy playoffs, I expect his usage to only improve.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
- Emeka Egbuka is clearly in a slump, finishing outside of the top 40 for a fourth game in a row. Despite that, he continues to rank within the top 20 in usage value (expected fantasy points), indicating room for positive regression. With a more favorable matchup coming up against Atlanta, Week 15 could finally be the week we see Egbuka bounce back for fantasy managers.
- Chimere Dike’s role in the Titans’ offense continues to grow. In their matchup against the Browns, Dike set career highs in target share (32%) and air yards share (44.8%), operating as their WR1 ahead of Elic Ayomanor. While Ayomanor remains heavily involved, Dike’s dynasty stock is clearly on the rise.
- With Rome Odunze ruled out, Luther Burden emerged as the most productive WR in a tough matchup against the Packers. Despite still receiving fewer routes than Olamide Zaccheaus and DJ Moore, Burden led the team in target share (21.4%) and air yards share (20.1%) in Week 14.
- Shedeur Sanders had by far his most efficient performance this season, albeit in a favorable matchup against a Titans defense. To put his numbers into perspective, his +15.4 Fantasy Points Over Expected ranks seventh among all QB performances this season. He also ranked within the top 10 in Week 14 in EPA per Play (0.213) and success rate (51%), which marks a significant improvement from his first two games.
Dynasty Stock Report
Harold Fannin Jr. – Cleveland Browns, TE – Stock Up
Despite a disappointing season for the Browns, Harold Fannin Jr. has been one of the bright spots for their struggling offense. Even with the carousel at the QB position, Fannin has finished within TE1 range multiple times this year. Especially in recent weeks, with the recent promotion of Shedeur Sanders, Fannin has emerged as one of his primary targets. Over the last three weeks, with Sanders as the QB1, Fannin has been the:
- TE10 in Expected Fantasy Points (8.7)
- TE3 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+3.9)
- TE2 in Target Share (27.8%)
- TE14 in Air Yards Share (17.2%)
While those numbers are still far from elite, Fannin has been highly productive for the Browns’ offense in recent weeks. Keep in mind that with David Njoku entering free agency next year, his role should only improve going forward. Even with some uncertainty regarding their long-term QB situation, Fannin should still be considered a dynasty TE1, with upside to rank even higher if the Browns can find some consistency for their offense.
David Montgomery – Detroit Lions, RB – Stock Down
With the Lions heavily relying on Jahmyr Gibbs this season, David Montgomery’s usage and efficiency have declined significantly. As you can see in the table below, his 8.9 Expected Fantasy Points is currently a career low. In addition, his +1.4 Fantasy Points Over Expected and 41.9% success rate would be his least efficient campaign since his final season with the Bears. While his usage is likely an indicator of how dominant Gibbs has been this season, Montgomery is also no longer the explosive RB we saw earlier in his career. From a dynasty perspective, his contract is also non-guaranteed in 2026, which could make him a cut candidate if the Lions are looking to save cap space. Even if he does stick around for another year or two, at almost age 29, Montgomery is unlikely to bounce back with the Lions.
Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers, WR – Stock Up
After injuring his knee late last season, there were several question marks regarding Christian Watson’s long-term value with the Packers. Especially with the addition of Matthew Golden, many assumed (including myself) that Watson’s time with Green Bay was slowly coming to an end. Instead, they signed him to an extension in September, locking him in for at least another season. On top of that, Watson has emerged as the WR1 for Jordan Love since returning from injury. Over the last month of football, Watson is averaging:
- 10.1 Expected Fantasy Points
- 26.5% Target Share
- 36.7% Air Yards Share
- 6.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected
To put his efficiency into context, Watson is currently the WR6 in Yards per Route Run (2.48), ahead of players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins on the season. While his numbers have been encouraging, this offense will still run (no pun intended) through Josh Jacobs. That will naturally lower his floor, even if he does maintain his elite market share numbers. However, if he can continue to produce at a high level to close out the season, Watson should be firmly entrenched as a top-30 WR in dynasty formats.
Kyle Williams – New England Patriots, WR – Stock Down
Entering the year, I was hopeful for Kyle Williams to emerge in a wide-open depth chart for the New England Patriots. Instead, the opposite has happened as New England remains committed to Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Mack Hollins as their leading receivers. In fact, Williams is currently the WR5 on their depth chart with only a 27% route participation in 13 games this season. On a positive note, he is averaging over 20 air yards per opportunity, highlighting his role as Drake Maye’s downfield weapon. And even though we have seen Williams finish as a top-36 WR in a couple of matchups, his limited routes and targets create significant volatility in his weekly output. Until we see his usage improve, Williams will rank outside of the top 50 dynasty WRs as we close out the season.
Prospect Watch List
Over the past three years, Nick Singleton has been the focal point of the Penn State backfield, widely regarded as a day-one or two prospect within the draft community. However, Kaytron Allen has quietly emerged as their RB1 this season after primarily serving as the RB2 to start his career. As shown above, Allen is on track to set career highs in multiple metrics, accounting for over 30% of Penn State’s offense and averaging a productive 1.86 scrimmage yards per team play. In fact, he is averaging 196 (!!) scrimmage yards and 1.7 TDs in his last three games, dominating as the centerpiece of the Nittany Lions’ offense. As a result, with Singleton struggling for most of the season, Allen has capitalized on his opportunities and has drastically improved his draft stock this year. From a dynasty perspective, assuming he receives day-two capital, he should be considered a top 15 pick in rookie drafts. And even with an underwhelming production profile early in his career, Allen still projects to be a +75th percentile prospect in my rookie model after a dominant Senior year.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
