Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 9
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 8:
- R.J. Harvey was the rookie of the week as he finished with 23.6 fantasy points, the most among all positions in Week 8. However, keep in mind that he finished with nearly 18.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected. That indicates his production was heavily boosted by his efficiency, implying his performance is likely unrepeatable unless we see his usage improve. For context, J.K. Dobbins still led the backfield in usage, ranking as a top 10 RB in Expected Fantasy Points with 12.3 xFP. In other words, I still expect Dobbins to be the most valuable player in this backfield, despite Harvey’s explosive performance in Week 8.
- Woody Marks has seen his usage improve significantly over the last four weeks, finishing within the top 20 in Expected Points in three of his last four games. As a result, Marks has averaged 11.9 fantasy points in that timespan, resulting in multiple RB2 performances since Week 4. While Nick Chubb continues to hold a sizable role in the Texans’ offense, Marks is shaping up to be a solid flex option in the right matchups.
- In what was a surprisingly favorable game script for the Dolphins’ RBs, Ollie Gordon set a season-high with 11 opportunities and a 27% rushing share. While that was certainly encouraging, Gordon still trailed De’Von Achane, who accounted for 39% of the team’s opportunities. With the Dolphins unlikely to blow out many teams this season, Gordon’s role will likely remain limited as Miami’s RB2.
- While Tetairoa McMillan has primarily produced flex-level numbers this season, he continues to command elite volume as a rookie. To put his usage into perspective, McMillan is the WR12 in Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.67), a metric that combines target share and air yards share into one number. However, because of Carolina’s emphasis on the run, McMillan has only had one top-12 performance to date. From a dynasty perspective, he should remain a borderline WR1 as we rarely see rookies command such elite volume.
- Emeka Egbuka has been a WR1 in Expected Fantasy Points in back-to-back weeks. The bad news? He has failed to connect on a majority of his opportunities, leading to an average of 9.3 Fantasy Points BELOW Expected over the last two weeks. For now, fantasy managers should not lose hope on Egbuka as his production should eventually regress to the mean.
Sean Thomas-Imagn Images
- With Nico Collins unavailable, Jayden Higgins set a career-high 21% target share and 11.4 fantasy points. His 12.7 Expected Fantasy Points also led the Texans’ receivers, well ahead of Jaylin Noel and Xavier Hutchinson. Even with Collins set to return this week, it was encouraging to see Higgins emerge when given the opportunity.
- Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor finished the week with identical target shares, though it was Ayomanor who received the more valuable downfield opportunities. While neither of them profiles as a startable fantasy WR, Ayomanor has at least showcased consistent usage with Cam Ward.
- On the week of National TEs Day, we had multiple rookies represented in the top 12, including Oronde Gadsden II, Harold Fannin, Mason Taylor, and Gunnar Helm. Of those four rookie TEs, Gadsden, Fannin, and Taylor all finished with over 20% of their team’s targets. While Helm only received three total opportunities, it is worth noting that two of them were right at the goal line, one of which resulted in a TD.
Dynasty Stock Report
Oronde Gadsden II – Los Angeles Chargers, TE – Stock Up
I already mentioned him in the previous segment, but Oronde Gadsden has seen his dynasty stock significantly improve over the last three weeks. After starting the season as a healthy inactive in his first two games, his snap count slowly improved beginning in Week 3. That culminated in a season-high route participation (91%) against Minnesota, as Gadsden fully emerged as a TE1 option for dynasty managers. For context, over the last three games, Gadsden has averaged impressive usage:
- 18.9% Target Share
- 20.9% Air Yards Share
- 81% Route Participation
- 20% Targets per Route Run
- 16.8 Half-PPR Points
- 10.7 Expected Fantasy Points (TE2)
Keep in mind that even though Gadsden is on pace for a TE1 season, Day 3 breakouts at the TE position remain rare, averaging only a 4.8% breakout rate since 2013. However, if we filter on Day 3 TEs who finished their careers with positive experience-adjusted production (a group that includes Gadsden, Jake Ferguson, and Tyler Higbee), fantasy hit rates improve to 14.3%. In other words, chasing a Day 3 breakout will likely lead to disappointment more often than not. But if we had to invest in a Day 3 prospect in our rookie drafts, we should focus on the most productive players in college football. That was the case for Gadsden at Syracuse, finishing third in the 2025 class in experience-adjusted production, behind only Colston Loveland and Harold Fannin. In short, his breakout should not come as a complete surprise, as Gadsden was an outstanding playmaker during his four years at Syracuse. And assuming his recent surge in usage continues with the Chargers, Gadsden should be valued as a dynasty TE1 by the end of the year.
Brian Thomas Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars, WR – Stock Down
While Brian Thomas Jr. remains a top 15 dynasty WR, his value has declined since the start of the season, as his usage and production are both significantly lower compared to his strong finish in his rookie year. For context, in his final six games in 2024, Thomas Jr. accounted for nearly 35% of the team’s targets and over 50% of their air yards. That is truly elite usage that should lead to WR1 production most weeks. However, Thomas has not come close to repeating those numbers this season, averaging only a 21.8% target share and 32.7% air yards share to start the year. While the presence of Travis Hunter has played a role in his declining usage, dynasty managers were not expecting BTJ to only average 9.1 fantasy points per game in the first half of the season. For now, I still believe in Thomas’s talent and would try to acquire him if dynasty managers are willing to trade him at a discount. After all, he still leads the Jaguars WRs in usage value in their first seven games, leaving room for some positive regression as we move into the second half of the season.
Puka Nacua – Los Angeles Rams, WR – Stock Up
Puka Nacua has been one of the most dominant WRs this season, as he continues to cement his value as a top-tier WR1. Before he suffered his ankle injury in Week 6, Nacua was on pace to finish with elite usage numbers, averaging a 35% target share, 39% air yards share, and 17.1 Expected Fantasy Points. For context, we rarely see WRs account for 35% of their team’s targets, with DeAndre Hopkins as the only player to exceed that threshold for a full season since 2013. While his ankle injury has slowed him down slightly, I expect Nacua to return in the coming weeks and continue to dominate as the lead receiver in a pass-heavy Rams offense. As for his dynasty value, he should be locked in as a top-three player at the WR position. One could argue that he should be ranked as the WR1 in dynasty ADP. However, with Ja’Marr Chase in a better long-term situation, he will likely remain the dynasty WR1 for the foreseeable future. Either way, Nacua should be one of the most valuable assets in all dynasty formats over the next several years, even with the inevitable retirement of Matthew Stafford.
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers, RB – Stock Down
With the recent emergence of Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard’s stock continues to decline as the Panthers’ backfield has recently transformed into a timeshare. And even though he did find the end zone in Week 8, Hubbard gained fewer scrimmage yards than Dowdle despite receiving five more opportunities. As a result, Dave Canales remained non-committal on Hubbard’s status as the Panthers’ RB1, recently stating that Dowdle’s impact on their offense will force them to reevaluate their backfield usage. While this does not bode well for Hubbard’s production for the rest of the year, he is at least tied to the Panthers’ roster through the 2026 campaign after signing an extension this past offseason. On the other hand, Dowdle is only a one-year deal, which means Hubbard could regain his RB1 role after this season. However, with Jonathon Brooks still recovering from an ACL tear, I would not be shocked if Carolina extended Dowdle for another year to solidify their depth at the RB position. Regardless, this places even more uncertainty on Hubbard’s long-term value, as he may no longer be the unquestioned RB1 for Carolina going forward.
Prospect Watch List
One of the most productive RBs in college football this season has been Cam Cook out of Jacksonville State. Initially starting his career with TCU, he played behind Emani Bailey in 2023 before leading the Horned Frogs in rushing in his Sophomore season. In total, however, his production was mostly unimpressive, as he never truly dominated in usage or production in his two seasons at TCU. As a result, he entered the transfer portal after the 2024 campaign and landed with Jacksonville State, in hopes of assuming a more prominent role as their leading RB. With a clear path to opportunities, Cook has taken full advantage of his expanded role, elevating his game to a new level in 2025. So far, he is on pace to set career highs in metrics such as Weighted Dominator Rating (38.5%) and Yards per Team Play (2.20). In fact, he currently leads all FBS RBs in both metrics, while also averaging an impressive 45.6% EPA Success Rate on over 180 total opportunities. The counter-argument to his production is that his strength of schedule has been significantly easier than at TCU, which partially explains his sizable improvement this season. Regardless, we should not completely discount his numbers. Even in a lesser conference, Cook’s production stands out as one of the better seasons (91st percentile) in recent history. Assuming he continues to dominate this year, he could be an intriguing mid to late-round dynasty pick in next year’s rookie draft.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
