Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 17
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 17!
In this article, we will utilize my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. As you may already know, volume is crucial in fantasy football. However, it’s important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal. A player’s value can vary significantly depending on their usage and the overall offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take these factors into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is closely tied to efficiency and is subject to regression on a weekly basis.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are new to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky (@MarvinJE) or Twitter (@FF_MarvinE).
RUNNING BACKS
- Chase Brown has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks, ranking as a top 15 RB in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) in eight straight games. To no surprise, with his improved usage, Brown has been the RB7 in half-PPR points over the last six weeks. As we head into Week 17, his RB1 production should continue as the Bengals face a Cardinals defense that ranks as a top-five matchup for RBs in fantasy points (29.7) and EPA per Play (0.10) allowed since Week 11, and recently giving up top 10 finishes to Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, and Travis Etienne. Especially as Cincinnati is favored in a game that should score over 50 total points, Brown will hold significant upside in this week’s slate.
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